{"id":18849,"date":"2026-03-02T21:18:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T10:18:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inkcinct.com.au\/?p=18849"},"modified":"2026-03-02T21:18:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T10:18:03","slug":"common-understanding-of-probability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inkcinct.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/02\/common-understanding-of-probability\/","title":{"rendered":"COMMON UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"18849\" class=\"elementor elementor-18849\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-d1ff562 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"d1ff562\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-61b14b6\" data-id=\"61b14b6\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bb0e8c1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"bb0e8c1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4>I drew this cartoon in response to a news report describing a recent flood as a one in one hundred year event.\u00a0 It reminded me of just how poor our understanding of probability is and how unhelpful describing a flood (or anything for that matter) as a one in (whatever the number of year\u2019s) event.\u00a0 In a sense this cartoon is in itself inaccurate as a one in one hundred year flood does not mean there will be only one such flood every one hundred years, back in 1893 Brisbane had two floods that could be described as one in one hundred year floods within weeks of each other.\u00a0 A better way of describing a one in one hundred year flood is saying that such a flood has a 1% chance of occurring in a given year.\u00a0 But if floods of a certain height in a given location are happening on average every twenty years than such floods have a 5% chance of occurring in a given year.\u00a0 We would have a better understanding of probability if the percentage chance of a flood occurring was quoted instead of describing it as a one in (whatever the number of year\u2019s) flood.<\/h4>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e06f5e7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e06f5e7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>CARTOON REFERENCE NUMBER:\u00a0 2026-08<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I drew this cartoon in response to a news report describing a recent flood as a one in one hundred year event.\u00a0 It reminded me of just how poor our understanding of probability is and how unhelpful describing a flood (or anything for that matter) as a one in (whatever the number of year\u2019s) event.\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":18848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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